The global context: from overproduction to scarcity?

The CAP reform process is notable for its sluggish pace and the inertia associated with changes to a core policy area, with the most recent period traceable to at least the MacSharry reforms and the Cork Declaration in 1996: a period of twenty years or so, the ever-evolving nature of the CAP within the general development of the European project may be readily acknowledged. The development of the RDR and of multifunctional agriculture, however, respond to and take place within a global context that, in comparison to the rate of policy change within the EU, is changing at a rapid and unpredictable rate. Whilst the slow pace of WTO negotiations may match that of CAP reform8 , the development of East Asian economies in particular, and the shifts in agricultural trade and food demand patterns, particularly as a consequence of changes in diet that accompany them pose immediate and far reaching challenges.

These challenges add to the accumulated impacts of an industrialized agri-food system on the physical environment. Over the last two decades concerns about the negative consequences of recent developments in agriculture and in the agri-food sector in Europe and worldwide have grown further viz. the debate about genetically modified products; cases of food contaminations; animal health concerns such as bird flu and the foot and mouth disease; issues of over-fishing; clear-felling of forests; loss of biodiversity; chemical pollution; climate change with its attendant effects on water resources and on the development of bio-fuels; and other environmental and health-related risks.

Many of these problems have been exacerbated by globalised agri-food systems by which trade in agricultural products has increased and increased prosperity, apparent in some of the more advanced developing countries, is manifested by increased demands on global food markets. With increased prosperity, the consumption of meat and dairy products, to take two notable examples, increases every year. Global meat production is projected to more than double from 229 million tonnes in 1999/2001 to 465 million tonnes in 2050, while milk output is set to climb from 580 to 1043 million tonnes (Steinfeld et al, 2006). The increase in production, whilst it challenges the assumptions and priorities of CAP reform also has a wider impact on the global context for the modern agri-food system. As the Steinfeld et al’s FAO report notes livestock farming has increased substantially in the last couple of decades until it now utilises 30 percent of the earth’s entire land surface. While most of the demand from livestock production is based on permanent pasture, 33 percent of global arable land is tied up in the production of feed for livestock. Additionally, in many instances new pastures are being created by clearing forest cover, making the industry into a major driver of deforestation, especially in Latin America where some 70 percent of the forest that has been cleared in the Amazon has been turned over to grazing (Steinfeld et al, 2006).

The livestock industry is implicated as a major contributor to the root causes of climate change particularly when gaseous emissions from land use by livestock industries and land use changes imposed by these industries are included. By the FAO’s reckoning the livestock sector accounts for 9 percent of the carbon dioxide that derives from human-related activities, but also generates 65 percent of human-related nitrous oxide, which has 296 times the Global Warming Potential (GWork package ) of CO2, mainly from manure; 37 percent of all human-induced methane (23 times as warming as CO2), largely produced by the digestive system of ruminants; and 64 percent of ammonia, which contributes significantly to acid rain. Thus this particular impact of the agri-food system is increasingly being recognised as a global hazard impelling a leading FAO official to declare

‘Livestock are one of the most significant contributors to today’s most serious environmental problems. Urgent action is required to remedy the situation.’ Henning Steinfeld, Chief of FAO’s Livestock Information and Policy Branch, (Steinfeld, 2006)

The consequences of climate change on agriculture contributes to further stresses in the global agri-food system, with consequences for populations in already vulnerable areas and increased problems of water management in areas that were hitherto able to support successful agricultural sectors. The UK government report on the economic impacts of climate change sets these out in stark terms that highlight the direct consequences for the agri-food system.

‘Declining crop yields, especially in Africa, could leave hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food. At mid to high latitudes, crop yields may increase for moderate temperature rises (2 - 3°C), but then decline with greater amounts of warming. At 4°C and above, global food production is likely to be seriously affected

….. ….. Developed countries in lower latitudes will be more vulnerable - for example, water availability and crop yields in southern Europe are expected to decline by 20% with a 2°C increase in global temperatures. Regions where water is already scarce will face serious difficulties and growing costs.’ (Stern, 2006)

Policy makers in the EU have been dealing with the assumptions of agricultural policy in the latter period of the twentieth century that addressed the problems of overproduction. The new scenario for agriculture is one of increased unpredictability where food scarcity and vulnerabilities in Agri-ecology contrasts with growing and new demands on agricultural production. As a response to these widespread concerns, and to a partial lack of public trust in existing policies and regulatory arrangements, politicians, state agencies, social movement organisations, business actors, and consumers are increasingly engaged in finding and developing new market-based and consumer oriented instruments. Farmers are thus challenged both by the greater impact of a more open and unpredictable global market environment, and by the removal of the protective mediating systems of CAP support, enhancing their need to develop as more autonomous (and exposed) agents.