15.How aviation safety has improved?

· Safest form of travel

Despite the recent tragic loss activity, flying is often said to be the safest form of transport, and this is at least true in terms of fatalities per distance travelled. According to the Civil Aviation Authority, the fatality rate per billion kilometres travelled by plane is 0.003 compared to 0.27 by rail and 2.57 by car.

Statistically, you have more chance of being killed riding a bicycle or even by lightning. The chances of dying in an air crash in the US or Europe are estimated to be 29 million to one.

· Positive statistics

Fatal accidents have fallen every decade since the 1950s, a significant achievement given the massive growth in air travel since then. In 1959, there were 40 fatal accidents per one million aircraft departures in the US. Within 10 years this had improved to less than two in every million departures, falling to around 0.1 per million today.

The improvements in safety are even more impressive when the increase in air traffic is considered. In 2014, the world’s airlines carried a record 3.3 billion passengers in 2014. There were 641 fatalities and 12 fatal accidents last year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

While the fatality rate significantly increased year-on-year (there were 210 fatalities in 2013), IATA says commercial aviation safety is still at “the lowest rate in history” based on hull losses per one million flights.

By these figures, the 2014 global jet accident rate was 0.23, the equivalent of one accident for every 4.4 million flights. This was actually an improvement over 2013 when the global hull loss rate stood at 0.41 (an average of one accident every 2.4m flights). Both beat the five-year rate (2009-2013) of 0.58 hull loss accidents per million flights. Go back 50 years – when airlines carried only 141 million passengers – there were 87 crashes killing 1,597 people.

· Engineering excellence

The improvement in airline safety is down to a combination of several factors, although the introduction of the jet engine in the 1950s stands out as a major development. Jet engines provide a level of safety and reliability unmatched by the earlier piston engines. Today, it is said that engine manufacturers have almost eliminated the chance of engine failure.

The introduction of electronics, most notable the introduction of digital instruments – known as the ‘glass cockpit’ in the 1970s – and the advent of fly-by-wire technology in the 1980s are also notable achievements, driving safety improvements. Improvements in sensors, navigation equipment and air traffic control technology, such as anti-collision control systems, have also played a role.

 In 20 years’, time we may see more fundamental changes in aviation technology, driven by the economic and environmental concerns of fossil fuels.

· Human factors

While technology has helped drive improvements in the aviation industry’s safety record, great strides in safety management systems and insights into human factors have also contributed significantly.

· Learning process

Improved safety is also a reflection of the aviation industry’s first-class risk management and increasing ability to identify problems before they become a significant issue. Air accident investigations and aircraft safety inspections are now more effective, while improvements in manufacturing technology and better-quality control are also making aircraft safer.

Where next for safety?

While the accident rate improved yet again in 2014, questions remain over the industry’s ability to maintain safety improvements in the future.

IATA notes that, given the projected growth in air travel, hull losses would double without further safety improvements. It has set a goal of further reducing the
accident rate, but says that new and improved ways of managing safety will be required, such as with the greater use of data analytics.

Tapping into the potentially vast pool of data collected by more than 27 million flights each year – rather than just the handful of flights where something goes wrong – will be key to improving safety in the future, according to IATA. For example, the airline industry is now looking to make greater use of data through IATA’s Flight Data Exchange (FDX), which uses flight recorder data to identify systemic risk issues.

New technology - new risks

The aviation industry’s impressive safety record in recent decades is in large part a reflection of technological developments introduced and then honed in the second half of the 20th century. Subsequent generations of jet aircraft have generally proved safer than the last.

The piston-driven aircraft that dominated the world’s airline fleet in 1960 had an accident rate of 27.2 accidents per million departures. The second generation of aircraft in the latter half of the 1960s and early 1970s, which included the Boeing 727 and the DC-9 jet airliners, had an accident rate of 2.8 accidents per million. The current generation of aircraft have an accident rate of 1.5 accidents per one million departures.

Next generation

Aircraft design may eventually have to change more dramatically, especially if flying is to be kept affordable as fuel costs climb in the future. This could bring about new forms of propulsion – such as electric, hybrid or solar powered planes – radical new airframe designs, as well as new techniques, like assisted take-offs or unpowered landings.

New materials and computer-aided aviation

In the meantime, the aviation industry continues to innovate, most recently with the introduction of composite materials and the increasing use of digital technology and electronics.